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Global supplies of frankincense, the aromatic resin used for centuries in rituals, perfumes, and wellness products, are under serious threat.
Experts warn that unchecked harvesting, climate stress, and habitat loss could cut production by half within the next two decades.
The decline puts fragile ecosystems and local livelihoods at risk across major producing regions in East Africa.
Tree Populations in Crisis
Boswellia trees, which produce frankincense, grow mainly in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan.
Harvesters extract the resin by cutting into the tree bark, but excessive tapping weakens the trees and slows recovery for years.
Research shows more than 75 percent of Boswellia populations lack young saplings.
Livestock grazing, wildfires, drought, and pest infestations continue to damage regeneration.
In Somaliland, aging groves signal a looming collapse of natural stands.
Rising Demand Strains Supply
Global demand continues to rise as aromatherapy, cosmetics, and wellness markets expand.
The frankincense trade now exceeds $700 million in value.
Despite this growth, harvesters earn as little as $2 to $5 per kilogram.
Export prices, however, range from $60 to $100 per kilogram.
This imbalance encourages aggressive harvesting without long-term planning.
Conflict and weak governance further disrupt sustainable management.
Traditional harvesting methods are rapidly giving way to large-scale extraction without regeneration safeguards.
Broader Environmental and Social Impact
Frankincense forests support biodiversity and provide income for rural communities.
Their loss could disrupt ecosystems and remove a critical livelihood source.
A decline in supply may also drive price spikes for incense used in religious and cultural practices worldwide.
Experts increasingly call for traceability, regulated tapping, and reforestation programs.
Sustainable Times has previously examined similar challenges in forest-based supply chains and conservation-linked livelihoods.
Paths Forward for Sustainability
Researchers recommend agroforestry systems that integrate Boswellia trees with food crops.
Certified supply chains and controlled harvesting cycles could help restore tree populations.
Climate-resilient planting and stronger national policies remain essential.
Organizations such as the Global Sustainability Impact Foundation (GSIF) emphasize aligning conservation with local economic stability.
Without urgent action, experts warn that frankincense shortages could become permanent.
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